Contest winner Patrick O’Rourke reveals his secrets to predicting Oscars and BAFTAs better than the experts [WATCH]


The true experts at Gold Derby are our users, who often score way better than we editors and the  professional experts. One of our top-ranked readers when it came to predicting the Oscar nominations was Patrick O’Rourke (user name: POR160893) who scored 78.51% percent. (By comparison, our top Expert score was 77.69 percent and our top Editor score was 76.86 percent.)  I chatted with contest winner Patrick, who is working as a data scientist in Dubai, via webcam (watch above) about his predictions for the Oscars. (See all of his predictions on his profile page.)

But we started off by discussing this Sunday’s BAFTA Awards. Patrick, who hails from Ireland, said that these awards can be easier to predict for people on that side of the pond. “I’m 25 and I grew up with a lot of British television, and a lot of times British actors and actresses who started off in television transition into movies.” That is why Patrick is predicting that Olivia Colman will win Best Actress for “The Favourite” over Glenn Close (“The Wife”).

SEE BAFTA Awards predictions: ‘The Favourite’ will win 7 including Best Picture, ‘Roma’ to take 3, ‘First Man’ 2

However, he does concede that this race could go Close’s way, as it did for Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”) when she won over the home-grown Rosamund Pike (“Gone Girl”). And he remains certain that Close will win the Oscar. “People know she is overdue.”

Patrick is fairly certain that Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) will win Best Actor over Christian Bale (“Vice”). “I cannot fault his performance as Freddie Mercury. Bale is overdue for a win but his character is not the easiest to be enamored with.”

SEE 2019 BAFTAs predictions: Ranked racetrack odds in 21 categories at the British Academy Awards

He favors Rachel Weisz (“The Favourite”) for the supporting actress BAFTA: “She has a clear path to this award. The majority of my friends and I were blown away by her character, she was deliciously evil. If Amy Adams had one or two more scenes she might have gotten it.”

PREDICT the BAFTA winners now; change them until Feb. 10

And Patrick says another Brit, Richard E. Grant, will win a BAFTA for his scene-stealing performance in “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” As Patrick explains, “He is such a well-respected British actor. This is their chance to give him a BAFTA and honor his movie as well.”

As for Best Picture at the BAFTAs, Patrick is going with “The Favourite” for now but is giving serious thought to “Roma.” He says Alfonso Cuaron is a lock for Best Director and is mindful that BAFTA voters had easy access to “Roma” as it is streaming on Netflix.

PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until Feb. 24

Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on Feb. 24.

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